2026 PGA Championship

The last five PGA Championships produced five different winners. Different ball-strikers. Different setups. Different leaderboards. The only thing all five have in common is that every one of them gained at least +0.95 strokes on approach. SG:APP is not only the most important category at this major — it is the only category that every recent winner has cleared, and it leads the next-largest contributor by more than 30%. Aronimink turns that requirement into the central exam.

Aronimink GC returns to major championship golf for the first time in 64 years. Donald Ross's 1928 parkland routing — restored by Gil Hanse and Jim Wagner in 2016–17 — plays as a par 70 at 7,394 yards through 32-yard bentgrass corridors, 3.5-inch fescue and poa rough, and 8,200-square-foot bentgrass greens running 13.5 stimp for the major. The course carries 174 bunkers, the most on Tour.

Archetype: Premium ball-striking test — paired distance and accuracy, with elevated approach demand. The Course Fit radar peaks simultaneously on Approach, Driving Distance, and Driving Accuracy near 0.85 — Aronimink is one of the few stops on Tour where all three axes elevate together. Around-the-green and putting both sit below average. The Aronimink-specific stat hierarchy ranks SG:APP first, proximity from 100-175 yards second, and scoring on difficult par 4s third — approach is the dominant differentiator. 

What it Rewards: Long-iron control and tee-shot precision. The previous five PGA Championship winners average +1.41 SG:APP — the largest single category contribution among PGA winners by more than 30%, and the only category every winner has gained strokes in across the last five years. 

What it Punishes: Missed fairways. The 3.5-inch rough and the densest bunker count on Tour compound miss patterns; the runoffs and crowned greens then turn approach misses into difficult up-and-downs.

Key Scoring Holes: The damage concentrates on the long holes. The three longest par 3s rank among the top four toughest on property, with the par-3 8th carrying a 28.9% bogey rate — no other hole exceeds 21%. The par-4 10th sees only 9.8% of the field break par due to a narrow fairway and one of the toughest putting surfaces on the course. The two par 5s are the only scoring relief, with the 555-yard 16th playing as the easiest hole at 49.3% under par.

Historical Scoring: The 2018 BMW Championship played here at -20, but on softer greens and a regular Tour setup that no longer applies. Wilmington Country Club is the cleanest course-style comp — DataGolf's #1 similarity and a fellow Northeast Ross-adjacent parkland. The closest recent PGA Championship setup comp is Oak Hill 2023, where Koepka won at -9. Winning scores outside the Valhalla outlier project to a -5 to -11 band.

The forecast is not spectacular. Thursday and Friday both run WNW/NNW at 10–13 mph base with gusts to the low 20s — a club’s worth of wind on the long holes, not a leaderboard-altering event. Saturday warms to 78°F with a softer SW 9 mph base and gusts to 20. Sunday calms entirely: 84°F, NW 8 mph, sunny — the lowest base wind of the week. Greens will hold their speed and major firmness throughout the week.

Per Kevin Roth’s weather report, no significant SG edge to either wave — the tee time draw is not a separating factor this week.

Net Effect: The forecast neither amplifies nor counteracts the course archetype. Aronimink's accuracy demand and long-iron load stay exactly as the layout dictates — paired ball-strikers still separate, and the breeze on the first two days reinforces rather than redefines the test. Wind-handlers carry a small edge across Thursday and Friday — without a wave-tier lever underneath it, that’s the full extent of the weather story.

Aronimink is the rare Tour stop where the Course Fit radar elevates Approach, Driving Distance, and Driving Accuracy together near 0.85. The PGA Championship winner profile reinforces all three. The category hierarchy for the week:

Putting moves above Around-the-Green because PGA winners average +0.95 SG:PUTT — the course de-weights it, the major elevates it back into the conversation.

Xander Schauffele is the structural standout. +0.857 SG:APP (10th on Tour) pairs with a +3.62 True SG/round at the 2018 BMW at this exact course — the largest single-event positive in the field.

Rory McIlroy brings a Tour-leading +1.090 SG:OTT, +1.010 SG:APP, and a 0.080 SG/shot from over 200 yards. On a layout where the par 3s average 215 yards and four par 4s exceed 470, the long-iron number does the scoring work.

Cameron Young posts +0.740 SG:APP and +0.920 SG:OTT for a season SG total of 2.470 (3rd on Tour) — and his +1.61 SG/round on Donald Ross designs is the cleanest historical signal in the top tier.

Jon Rahm ranks 2nd in the field at +1.050 SG:APP, 5th at +0.860 SG:OTT, and 3rd in the field at 0.099 SG/shot from over 200. He is elite in every category the archetype weights heavily.

Scottie Scheffler leads the Tour in total SG at +2.930 headlined by +0.720 SG:APP and +0.880 SG:OTT. He is 1st in the field at +0.086 SG/shot from 150-200 yards and 1st at +0.820 SG/round on Ross designs. The course fit composite penalizes him on the OTT axis, but the model still projects him at 13.3% win probability — 5.3 points clear of the field. 

Matt Fitzpatrick. +0.990 SG:APP (4th on Tour) and +0.049 driving accuracy — positive vs. Tour average on a venue where accuracy is a kill-switch variable. His 0.089 SG/shot from over 200 yards combined with +0.70 SG/round on Donald Ross designs lock in the long-iron profile.

Adam Scott. #1 on the Florida-Swing-only APP composite showing recent form and a +1.030 SG:APP on the season (2nd on Tour). His approach ability and a +1.43 True SG/round at the 2018 BMW at Aronimink confirm the recent form held at this specific venue.

Collin Morikawa. A Tour-leading +1.21 SG:APP and an overall strong approach profile — but his Course Fit composite ranks 22nd in the field, driven by a −0.09 accuracy adjustment that is the worst negative-accuracy mark of any player with a positive APP profile. The accuracy adjustment is the kill switch on a layout where 32-yard corridors and 174 bunkers compound miss patterns. The approach number is real; this archetype just won’t reward it cleanly.

Profile Pattern: Paired ball-strikers separate here. Single-skill profiles get exposed both ways.